{"id":367,"date":"2026-01-30T14:27:11","date_gmt":"2026-01-30T14:27:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forecastingresearch.org\/?post_type=job&#038;p=367"},"modified":"2026-04-29T12:14:20","modified_gmt":"2026-04-29T12:14:20","slug":"senior-llm-researcher","status":"publish","type":"job","link":"https:\/\/forecastingresearch.org\/careers\/senior-llm-researcher","title":{"rendered":"Senior LLM Researcher"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">LLMs have the potential to dramatically change the field of forecasting research. Our benchmark on LLM forecasting capabilities, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forecastbench.org\/\" id=\"https:\/\/www.forecastbench.org\/\">ForecastBench<\/a>, documents that LLMs already outperform the median public forecaster, and they are becoming more capable over time. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Forecasting Research Institute (FRI) seeks a Senior LLM Researcher to help us apply LLMs to speed up and improve the process of creating actionable forecasting reports for policymakers (e.g., see our work on forecasting nuclear risk and other global risks) and to advance the science of forecasting as applied to LLMs (e.g. creating benchmarks like <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forecastbench.org\/\" id=\"https:\/\/www.forecastbench.org\/\">ForecastBench<\/a> and using LLMs to assess rationale quality).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">projects may include<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Creating practically useful LLM tools to support all aspects of the forecasting research process, such as:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Using LLMs to quickly identify the highest-quality forecasting rationales within a dataset, and then quickly synthesizing why forecasters believe what they believe in a way that decisionmakers can easily engage with.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Using LLMs to augment adversarial collaborations: quickly generating large numbers of forecasting questions that get at the \u201ccrux\u201d of why people disagree about topics such as the magnitude of AI risk or nuclear risk, and using LLMs to forecast and explain different perspectives on these topics in a way that enables faster assessment of which perspectives are more accurate.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Doing scientific studies to rigorously establish where LLMs are more and less effective relative to humans (or in combination with them). For example, this could include:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Comparing the \u201cvalue of information\u201d provided by LLM-generated forecasting questions vs. questions written by top humans.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Assessing how LLMs can best help humans improve their forecasting.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Expanding on our work on ForecastBench to assess LLMs\u2019 proficiency relative to humans at doing conditional forecasting.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Using LLMs to rigorously assess the features of forecasting rationales most associated with forecasting accuracy.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">the role<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In this role you would manage one or more research projects. This may involve:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Coordinating a team of research analysts and research assistants, delegating tasks as appropriate, and ensuring that projects stay on track to meet deadlines<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Contributing to the design of research projects that will help advance the science of forecasting and\/or make forecasting more useful to policymakers<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Planning data collection and ensuring smooth implementation of this process<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Planning and overseeing data analysis, working closely with data analysts<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Interpreting the results of research, and identifying key findings and implications for policy and philanthropic priorities<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Coordinating the writing of project reports and (where appropriate) academic papers<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Planning and executing evaluation of research projects<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">qualifications<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The ideal candidate would have the following characteristics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Passionate about FRI\u2019s mission of improving decision-making on high-stakes issues<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Strong coding skills (Python, LLM APIs, portfolio of projects showing technical expertise)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Strong generalist research and writing skills<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Excellent project manager who drives work ahead independently<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Clear, explicit communicator, both in writing and verbally<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Familiarity with, and interest in, quantitative forecasting<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ability to work productively in a self-directed (remote) environment<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Experience managing people is preferred but not required<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Experience managing the full research project cycle\u2014from design to implementation to delivering results and evaluating\u2014is preferred but not required<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Familiarity with some of the data skills listed in our data analyst job description, though not required, is preferred<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><em>We highly encourage you to apply, even if you don&#8217;t feel completely qualified. Some of the best people we\u2019ve worked with in our careers felt underqualified when they first applied, and we\u2019re glad they did so anyway.<\/em><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The fine print<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Role details<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>We prefer full-time but are open to part-time roles for the right candidate.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Salary is commensurate with experience.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This role is entirely remote, however we ensure that team members have opportunities to connect and collaborate in-person with regular team retreats (currently three times per year) and virtual collaboration sessions.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Team members can work whichever hours of the day work for them but must be consistently available between our core hours of 11am and 3pm ET.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>We are able to hire people in most countries, provided they have pre-existing work authorization for that country. Team members based outside the U.S. will be employed through an employer of record (EOR) service in their country of residency.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>We provide 80% contribution towards fully funded health insurance for staff, 30 days per year of paid time off (including public holidays), and up to 10 days of paid sick leave, among other benefits. Exact benefits may vary based on local requirements.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Application process<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>We are actively reviewing applications on a rolling basis and will take down this job posting when the role is filled.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The application process will vary by candidate but for successful candidates will typically involve:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>An initial application, including a 1-hour work test<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A paid 10-hour work test<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Three virtual interviews with members of our team<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"btn orange\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/forms\/d\/e\/1FAIpQLSdIihS98wW71Lx6tb-LRAjWl9EYSs5OuYy0fcgtUPgxIsBaDQ\/viewform?usp=sf_link\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Apply <svg width=\"7\" height=\"9\" viewBox=\"0 0 7 9\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\">\n  <path d=\"M0.000156283 8.60806L4.22416 4.33606V4.24006L0.000156283 6.10352e-05H1.80816L6.06416 4.28806L1.80816 8.60806H0.000156283Z\" fill=\"#102B23\"\/>\n<\/svg>\n<svg width=\"8\" height=\"10\" viewBox=\"0 0 8 10\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\">\n  <path d=\"M0.601719 8.85794L4.82572 4.58594V4.48994L0.601719 0.249939H2.40972L6.66572 4.53794L2.40972 8.85794H0.601719Z\" fill=\"#102B23\"\/>\n<\/svg><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Help FRI apply LLMs to speed up and improve the process of creating actionable forecasting reports and advance the science of forecasting as applied to LLMs.","protected":false},"template":"","job_tag":[14,15],"class_list":["post-367","job","type-job","status-publish","hentry","job_tag-full-time","job_tag-remote"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<title>Senior LLM Researcher &#8211; 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