{"id":2342,"date":"2026-06-23T13:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-23T13:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forecastingresearch.org\/?page_id=2342"},"modified":"2026-10-23T13:11:41","modified_gmt":"2026-10-23T13:11:41","slug":"transparency","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/forecastingresearch.org\/transparency","title":{"rendered":"Transparency"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Organization<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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See our Board of Directors \n \n<\/svg>\n\n \n<\/svg><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

We are a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. You can use this search tool<\/a> to view our determination and annual returns. Email info@forecastingresearch.org<\/a> to request any additional relevant public access files electronically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Funders<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Our research is primarily funded by donations. Every contribution supports our work running large-scale forecasting studies to inform decision-making on high-stakes issues. To discuss ideas for forecasting projects or learn more about our specific funding needs, please contact us at info@forecastingresearch.org<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Explore our research \n \n<\/svg>\n\n \n<\/svg><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Below is a list of grantmaking organizations and individuals who have contributed $10,000 USD or more to FRI since its founding in October 2022. In addition to the grants below, our first project, the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament<\/a> (XPT), was made possible by a grant from the Musk Foundation before the Forecasting Research Institute was established.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Coefficient Giving (formerly Open Philanthropy)<\/strong><\/summary>\n
Date<\/strong><\/td>Amount<\/strong><\/td>Purpose<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
September 2026<\/td>$250,000 USD<\/td>Support scoping work on methods to measure and improve the accuracy of socially valuable long-time-horizon prediction markets.<\/td><\/tr>
March 2025<\/td>$10,080,000 USD<\/td>General support<\/td><\/tr>
October 2024<\/td>$1,071,000 USD<\/td>Support the Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP)<\/a>.<\/td><\/tr>
April 2024<\/td>$483,850 USD<\/td>Forecasting red-line evaluations of advanced AI systems.<\/td><\/tr>
April 2024<\/td>$100,000 USD<\/td>Support the construction of ForecastBench<\/a>.<\/td><\/tr>
January 2024<\/td>$60,000 USD<\/td>Analysis of forecasting accuracy using data from large forecasting competitions.<\/td><\/tr>
March 2023<\/td>$75,000 USD (prize)<\/td>Prize from the Open Philanthropy AI Worldviews Contest<\/a> for our Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament<\/a> (XPT) report.<\/td><\/tr>
March 2023<\/td>$150,000 USD<\/td>Support the AI adversarial collaboration<\/a><\/td><\/tr>
December 2022<\/td>$5,352,800 USD<\/td>General support<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/figure>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n
GiveWell<\/strong><\/summary>\n
Date<\/strong><\/td>Amount<\/strong><\/td>Purpose<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
May 2025<\/td>$200,808 USD<\/td>Elicit forecasts about the under-5 all-cause mortality treatment effect of water chlorination programs.
See GiveWell\u2019s rationale here<\/a>.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/figure>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n
Ought<\/strong><\/summary>\n
Date<\/strong><\/td>Amount<\/strong><\/td>Purpose<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
April 2026<\/td>$100,000 USD<\/td>General support<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/figure>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n
Survival & Flourishing Fund<\/strong><\/summary>\n
Date<\/strong><\/td>Amount<\/strong><\/td>Purpose<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
June 2025<\/td>$10,000 USD<\/td>General support<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/figure>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n
Vanguard Charitable, on behalf of Craig Falls<\/strong><\/summary>\n
Date<\/strong><\/td>Amount<\/strong><\/td>Purpose<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
September 2024<\/td>$1,300,000 USD<\/td>Support the development and maintenance of the Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP)<\/a>.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/figure>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n

Collaborations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

We collaborate on impactful research and receive funding to help top organizations prepare well for developments and risks in their domain. We are often restricted from sharing details of collaborations until the research is public. Some collaborations may not be listed below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Active Site (formerly Panoplia Laboratories)<\/strong><\/summary>\n
Date<\/td>Collaboration<\/td><\/tr>
August 2025 – February 2026<\/td>FRI worked with Active Site (a nonprofit that evaluates AI-driven biology, formerly known as Panoplia Laboratories) to forecast the results of one of their experiments and how these might relate to real-world risk. The results can be seen in this post<\/a>. This project was partially funded by METR<\/a>.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/figure>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n
Anthropic PBC<\/strong><\/summary>\n
Date<\/td>Collaboration<\/td><\/tr>
December 2025 — August 2026<\/td>Forecasting the Impacts of ASL-3 Safeguards on Biosecurity Risks<\/a> was produced as part of an internal project funded by and completed for Anthropic PBC. Anthropic provided input and advice in the development of the report, but all findings and claims represent the views of the authors.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/figure>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n
Thinking Machines Lab<\/strong><\/summary>\n
Date<\/td>Collaboration<\/td><\/tr>
June 2026 – October 2026<\/td>A private evaluation of the forecasting accuracy of several models at multiple training checkpoints was conducted for Thinking Machines Lab. The work included an additional question set and private leaderboards indicating how the models would have ranked had they been submitted to ForecastBench<\/a> publicly.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/figure>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n

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