{"id":942,"date":"2025-01-17T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-01-17T12:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forecastingresearch.org\/?post_type=research&#038;p=942"},"modified":"2026-04-17T17:23:42","modified_gmt":"2026-04-17T17:23:42","slug":"subjective-probability-forecasts-of-existential-risk-initial-results-from-a-hybrid-persuasion-forecasting-tournament","status":"publish","type":"research","link":"https:\/\/forecastingresearch.org\/research\/subjective-probability-forecasts-of-existential-risk-initial-results-from-a-hybrid-persuasion-forecasting-tournament","title":{"rendered":"Subjective-probability forecasts of existential risk: Initial results from a hybrid persuasion-forecasting tournament"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Abstract<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A multi-stage persuasion-forecasting tournament asked specialists and generalists (\u201csuperforecasters\u201d) to explain their probability judgments of short- and long-run existential threats to humanity. Specialists were more pessimistic, especially on long-run threats posed by artificial intelligence (AI). Despite incentives to share their best arguments during four months of discussion, neither side materially moved the other\u2019s views. This would be puzzling if participants were Bayesian agents methodically sifting through elusive clues about distant futures but it is less puzzling if participants were boundedly rational agents searching for confirmatory evidence as the risks of embarrassing accuracy feedback receded. Consistent with the latter mechanism, strong AI-risk proponents made particularly extreme long- but not short-range forecasts and over-estimated the long-range AI-risk forecasts of others. We stress the potential of these methods to inform high-stakes debates, but we acknowledge limits on what even skilled forecasters can achieve in anticipating rare or unprecedented events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"btn orange\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ijforecast.2024.11.008\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Read the full paper in the International Journal of Forecasting <svg width=\"7\" height=\"9\" viewBox=\"0 0 7 9\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\">\n  <path d=\"M0.000156283 8.60806L4.22416 4.33606V4.24006L0.000156283 6.10352e-05H1.80816L6.06416 4.28806L1.80816 8.60806H0.000156283Z\" fill=\"#102B23\"\/>\n<\/svg>\n<svg width=\"8\" height=\"10\" viewBox=\"0 0 8 10\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\">\n  <path d=\"M0.601719 8.85794L4.82572 4.58594V4.48994L0.601719 0.249939H2.40972L6.66572 4.53794L2.40972 8.85794H0.601719Z\" fill=\"#102B23\"\/>\n<\/svg><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"In this study, domain experts and superforecasters explained their probability judgments about existential threats facing humanity. We also examined whether sharing their best arguments materially shifted participants&#8217; views.","protected":false},"featured_media":1757,"template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"research_type":[5],"class_list":["post-942","research","type-research","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","research_type-academic-article"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<title>Subjective-probability forecasts of existential risk: Initial results from a hybrid persuasion-forecasting tournament &#8211; Forecasting Research Institute<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/forecastingresearch.org\/research\/subjective-probability-forecasts-of-existential-risk-initial-results-from-a-hybrid-persuasion-forecasting-tournament\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Subjective-probability forecasts of existential risk: Initial results from a hybrid persuasion-forecasting tournament &#8211; Forecasting Research Institute\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In this study, domain experts and superforecasters explained their probability judgments about existential threats facing humanity. We also examined whether sharing their best arguments materially shifted participants&#039; views.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/forecastingresearch.org\/research\/subjective-probability-forecasts-of-existential-risk-initial-results-from-a-hybrid-persuasion-forecasting-tournament\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Forecasting Research Institute\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-04-17T17:23:42+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/forecastingresearch.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/illustration_Midjourney_subjective-probability-forecasts-existential-risk.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2560\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1607\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/forecastingresearch.org\\\/research\\\/subjective-probability-forecasts-of-existential-risk-initial-results-from-a-hybrid-persuasion-forecasting-tournament\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/forecastingresearch.org\\\/research\\\/subjective-probability-forecasts-of-existential-risk-initial-results-from-a-hybrid-persuasion-forecasting-tournament\",\"name\":\"Subjective-probability forecasts of existential risk: Initial results from a hybrid persuasion-forecasting tournament &#8211; 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