https://forecastingresearch.org/research/better-crystal-ball 2026-04-16T12:25:46+00:00 https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/4ab87ec40b5a2d1b201f9f6a92660d39cff3a8a7.jpg https://forecastingresearch.org/research/belief-updating-in-ai-risk-debates-exploring-the-limits-of-adversarial-collaboration 2026-04-17T17:17:51+00:00 https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/FRI-illustration-library-15.jpg https://forecastingresearch.org/research/subjective-probability-forecasts-of-existential-risk-initial-results-from-a-hybrid-persuasion-forecasting-tournament 2026-04-17T17:23:42+00:00 https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/illustration_Midjourney_subjective-probability-forecasts-existential-risk.jpg https://forecastingresearch.org/research/identifying-good-forecasters-via-adaptive-cognitive-tests 2026-04-17T17:32:18+00:00 https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/FRI-illustration-library-5.jpg https://forecastingresearch.org/research/forecastbench 2026-04-17T17:33:13+00:00 https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/FRI-illustration-library-8-1.jpg https://forecastingresearch.org/research/longrange-subjective-probability-forecasts-of-slowmotion-variables-in-world-politics 2026-04-17T17:41:31+00:00 https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/illustration_Midjourney_forecasts-world-politics.jpg https://forecastingresearch.org/research/improving-judgments-of-existential-risk 2026-04-17T17:43:37+00:00 https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/illustration_Midjourney_improving-judgments-of-existential-risk.jpg https://forecastingresearch.org/research/reciprocal-scoring-forecasting-unanswerable-questions 2026-04-17T17:44:50+00:00 https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/illustration_Midjourney_reciprocal-scoring.jpg https://forecastingresearch.org/research/project-improbable-improving-low-probability-judgments 2026-04-23T09:26:02+00:00 https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/FRI-illustration-library-6.jpg https://forecastingresearch.org/research/psychometric-properties-of-probability-and-quantile-forecasts 2026-04-23T09:26:10+00:00 https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/FRI-illustration-library-12.jpg https://forecastingresearch.org/research/ai-needs-fewer-prophets-and-more-predictions 2026-04-23T14:23:40+00:00 https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/illustration_Midjourney_Bloomberg-Editorial-2025-1.jpg https://forecastingresearch.org/research/longitudinal-expert-ai-panel-leap 2026-04-28T10:51:47+00:00 https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/illustration_Midjourney_LEAP_project.jpg https://forecastingresearch.org/research/forecasting-proficiency-test-general-use-assessment-of-forecasting-ability 2026-04-28T11:09:17+00:00 https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/illustration_Midjourney_FPT.jpg https://forecastingresearch.org/research/existential-risk-persuasion-tournament 2026-04-28T13:51:23+00:00 https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/FRI-illustration-library-14.jpg https://forecastingresearch.org/research/nuclear-risk 2026-04-28T14:07:39+00:00 https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/FRI-illustration-library-4.jpg https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/working-paper_2024-10-29_nuclear-risk_fig-01.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/working-paper_2024-10-29_nuclear-risk_fig-02.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/working-paper_2024-10-29_nuclear-risk_fig-03.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/working-paper_2024-10-29_nuclear-risk_fig-04.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/working-paper_2024-10-29_nuclear-risk_fig-05.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/working-paper_2024-10-29_nuclear-risk_fig-06.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/working-paper_2024-10-29_nuclear-risk_fig-07.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/working-paper_2024-10-29_nuclear-risk_fig-01.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/working-paper_2024-10-29_nuclear-risk_fig-09.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/working-paper_2024-10-29_nuclear-risk_fig-10.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/working-paper_2024-10-29_nuclear-risk_fig-11.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/working-paper_2024-10-29_nuclear-risk_fig-12.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/working-paper_2024-10-29_nuclear-risk_fig-13.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/working-paper_2024-10-29_nuclear-risk_fig-14.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/working-paper_2024-10-29_nuclear-risk_fig-15.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/working-paper_2024-10-29_nuclear-risk_fig-16.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/working-paper_2024-10-29_nuclear-risk_fig-17.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/working-paper_2024-10-29_nuclear-risk_fig-18.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/working-paper_2024-10-29_nuclear-risk_fig-19.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/working-paper_2024-10-29_nuclear-risk_fig-20.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/working-paper_2024-10-29_nuclear-risk_fig-02.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/working-paper_2024-10-29_nuclear-risk_fig-22.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/working-paper_2024-10-29_nuclear-risk_fig-23.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/working-paper_2024-10-29_nuclear-risk_fig-24.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/working-paper_2024-10-29_nuclear-risk_fig-25.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/working-paper_2024-10-29_nuclear-risk_fig-26.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/working-paper_2024-10-29_nuclear-risk_fig-27.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/working-paper_2024-10-29_nuclear-risk_fig-28.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/working-paper_2024-10-29_nuclear-risk_fig-29.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/working-paper_2024-10-29_nuclear-risk_fig-30.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/working-paper_2024-10-29_nuclear-risk_fig-31.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/working-paper_2024-10-29_nuclear-risk_fig-32.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/working-paper_2024-10-29_nuclear-risk_fig-33.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/working-paper_2024-10-29_nuclear-risk_fig-34.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/working-paper_2024-10-29_nuclear-risk_fig-35.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/working-paper_2024-10-29_nuclear-risk_fig-36.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/working-paper_2024-10-29_nuclear-risk_fig-37.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/working-paper_2024-10-29_nuclear-risk_fig-38.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/working-paper_2024-10-29_nuclear-risk_fig-39.png https://forecastingresearch.org/research/near-term-xpt-accuracy 2026-05-04T17:42:48+00:00 https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/FRI-illustration-library-13.jpg https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/paper_2025-09-02_near-term-xpt-accuracy_fig-02-1.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/paper_2025-09-02_near-term-xpt-accuracy_fig-02-2.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/paper_2025-09-02_near-term-xpt-accuracy_fig-02-3.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/paper_2025-09-02_near-term-xpt-accuracy_fig-03-1.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/paper_2025-09-02_near-term-xpt-accuracy_fig-04-1.png https://forecastingresearch.org/research/longitudinal-expert-ai-panel-leap-working-paper 2026-05-05T11:23:12+00:00 https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/illustration_Midjourney_LEAP_paper_waves-1-2-3.jpg https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2025-11-10_longitudinal-expert-ai-panel-ai-capabilities-adoption-impact_fig-02.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2025-11-10_longitudinal-expert-ai-panel-ai-capabilities-adoption-impact_fig-04.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2025-11-10_longitudinal-expert-ai-panel-ai-capabilities-adoption-impact_fig-05.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2025-11-10_longitudinal-expert-ai-panel-ai-capabilities-adoption-impact_fig-07.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2025-11-10_longitudinal-expert-ai-panel-ai-capabilities-adoption-impact_fig-09.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2025-11-10_longitudinal-expert-ai-panel-ai-capabilities-adoption-impact_fig-01.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2025-11-10_longitudinal-expert-ai-panel-ai-capabilities-adoption-impact_fig-02.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2025-11-10_longitudinal-expert-ai-panel-ai-capabilities-adoption-impact_fig-03.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2025-11-10_longitudinal-expert-ai-panel-ai-capabilities-adoption-impact_fig-04.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2025-11-10_longitudinal-expert-ai-panel-ai-capabilities-adoption-impact_fig-05.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2025-11-10_longitudinal-expert-ai-panel-ai-capabilities-adoption-impact_fig-06.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2025-11-10_longitudinal-expert-ai-panel-ai-capabilities-adoption-impact_fig-07.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2025-11-10_longitudinal-expert-ai-panel-ai-capabilities-adoption-impact_fig-08.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2025-11-10_longitudinal-expert-ai-panel-ai-capabilities-adoption-impact_fig-09.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2025-11-10_longitudinal-expert-ai-panel-ai-capabilities-adoption-impact_fig-10.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2025-11-10_longitudinal-expert-ai-panel-ai-capabilities-adoption-impact_fig-11.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2025-11-10_longitudinal-expert-ai-panel-ai-capabilities-adoption-impact_fig-12.png https://forecastingresearch.org/research/ai-conditional-trees 2026-05-05T14:27:24+00:00 https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/illustration_Midjourney_AI-Conditional-Trees.jpg https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-04-06_ai-conditional-trees_fig-E-1.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-04-06_ai-conditional-trees_fig-1-1-1.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-04-06_ai-conditional-trees_fig-1-1-2.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-04-06_ai-conditional-trees_fig-1-1-3.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-04-06_ai-conditional-trees_fig-2-1-1.jpg https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-04-06_ai-conditional-trees_fig-2-1-2.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-04-06_ai-conditional-trees_fig-2-1-3.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-04-06_ai-conditional-trees_fig-2-2-1.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-04-06_ai-conditional-trees_fig-2-2-2.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-04-06_ai-conditional-trees_fig-3-1-1.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-04-06_ai-conditional-trees_fig-3-2-1.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-04-06_ai-conditional-trees_fig-E-1.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-04-06_ai-conditional-trees_fig-3-3-1.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-04-06_ai-conditional-trees_fig-3-3-2.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-04-06_ai-conditional-trees_fig-3-3-3.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-04-06_ai-conditional-trees_fig-3-3-4.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-04-06_ai-conditional-trees_fig-3-3-5.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-04-06_ai-conditional-trees_fig-3-3-6.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-04-06_ai-conditional-trees_fig-3-3-7-e1776456079180.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-04-06_ai-conditional-trees_fig-3-3-8.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-04-06_ai-conditional-trees_fig-3-4-1.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-04-06_ai-conditional-trees_fig-3-4-2.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-04-06_ai-conditional-trees_fig-3-4-3.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-04-06_ai-conditional-trees_fig-3-4-4.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-04-06_ai-conditional-trees_fig-3-4-5.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-04-06_ai-conditional-trees_fig-3-4-6.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-04-06_ai-conditional-trees_fig-3-4-7-e1776456106416.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-04-06_ai-conditional-trees_fig-3-4-8.png https://forecastingresearch.org/research/roots-of-disagreement-on-ai-risk 2026-05-05T14:35:56+00:00 https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/FRI-illustration-library-10.jpg https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2024-03-11_ai-adversarial-collaboration_fig-01.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2024-03-11_ai-adversarial-collaboration_fig-02.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2024-03-11_ai-adversarial-collaboration_fig-03.png https://forecastingresearch.org/research/forecastbench-a-dynamic-benchmark-of-ai-forecasting-capabilities 2026-05-06T14:07:12+00:00 https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/illustration_Midjourney_ForecastBench-02.jpg https://forecastingresearch.org/research/llm-enabled-biorisk 2026-05-11T16:42:50+00:00 https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/FRI-illustration-library-3.jpg https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/paper_2025-07-01_ai-enabled-biorisk_fig-01.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2025-07-01_ai-enabled-biorisk_fig-02_v2.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2025-07-01_ai-enabled-biorisk_fig-03a.jpg https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2025-07-01_ai-enabled-biorisk_fig-03b.jpg https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/paper_2025-07-01_ai-enabled-biorisk_fig-04.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2025-07-01_ai-enabled-biorisk_fig-05a.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2025-07-01_ai-enabled-biorisk_fig-05b.png https://forecastingresearch.org/research/economic-effects-of-ai 2026-05-21T14:18:36+00:00 https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/FRI-illustration-library-1.jpg https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-03-31_economic-effects-of-ai_fig-01.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-03-31_economic-effects-of-ai_fig-02.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-03-31_economic-effects-of-ai_fig-03.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-03-31_economic-effects-of-ai_fig-04.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-03-31_economic-effects-of-ai_fig-05.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-03-31_economic-effects-of-ai_fig-06.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-03-31_economic-effects-of-ai_fig-07.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-03-31_economic-effects-of-ai_fig-08.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-03-31_economic-effects-of-ai_fig-09.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-03-31_economic-effects-of-ai_fig-10.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/paper_2026-03-31_economic-effects-of-ai_fig-11-v1.1.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-03-31_economic-effects-of-ai_fig-12.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-03-31_economic-effects-of-ai_fig-13.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-03-31_economic-effects-of-ai_fig-14.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-03-31_economic-effects-of-ai_fig-15.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-03-31_economic-effects-of-ai_fig-16.png https://forecastingresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/paper_2026-03-31_economic-effects-of-ai_fig-17.png