President, Chief Scientist

Philip Tetlock is a PIK (Penn Integrates Knowledge) Professor, cross-appointed in the School of Arts and Science and Wharton at the University of Pennsylvania. He is the author of Expert Political Judgment (2005) and Superforecasting (2015)—and of 100+ peer-reviewed articles that have been cited 100+ times. Phil co-created the Good Judgment Project, the winning research team in IARPA’s series of geopolitical forecasting tournaments, and is a co-founder and advisor of Good Judgment Inc.

CEO

Josh works on increasing the relevance of forecasting for policymakers and managing research projects at FRI. He is also a part-time Senior Advisor at GiveWell, where he spent several years as a manager of the research team, a co-lead on experimental grantmaking, and the lead hiring manager for the research and content editing teams.

Research Director

Ezra is an applied microeconomist in the research group at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, where he develops methods for forecasting unresolvable questions and constructing high-frequency indices that track policy-relevant economic indicators. He was previously an accurate research subject in IARPA’s ACE, HFC, and FOCUS forecasting tournaments.

Research Analyst

Avital is a researcher and writer, particularly interested in areas where technical skill interacts with common knowledge. She has previously been a PhD student in history at Yale, taught content related to history, trading, and rationality at the Atlas Fellowship, and worked as a writer for the Center for AI Safety.

Research Analyst

Bridget is a researcher interested in improving policy decision-making. After originally qualifying and working as a medical doctor in Australia, Bridget specialised in public health medicine, working in academia, government, and international non-governmental organisations. She is currently a DPhil candidate at the University of Oxford, conducting research into effective biosecurity policy, including into the role of forecasting in developing and evaluating policies.

Research Analyst

Sam is a researcher and writer with a background in political science. He previously worked at Social Change Lab conducting research into the effectiveness of protests and social movements. He received an Emergent Ventures grant from the Mercatus Center in 2022 to write about Effective Altruism and social science. He has been forecasting since 2020, and he became a Superforecaster in 2021.

Data Analyst

Zach is a data analyst who, since 2019, has been working with Professor Tetlock and others at the University of Pennsylvania on various forecasting research projects. He served as a research subject and, in later stages, as a research assistant during IARPA's FOCUS forecasting tournament.

Data Analyst

Molly is a computer scientist with a background in crowdsourced intelligence. She worked at the MITRE Corporation on test and evaluation for several forecasting projects, and now forecasts herself – she is a member of the Samotsvety forecasting team and has been a 'Pro' on INFER. Previously, Molly worked at nLine, Inc., a startup that monitors outlet-level power reliability in Sub-Saharan Africa, working to improve the reach and resilience of energy infrastructure.

Data Analyst

Houtan is a programmer with a background in economics. Before joining FRI, he created a forecasting platform for Bakboka where forecasts were used to inform their consulting work. He previously worked as a programmer on the Dynare project and, before that, as a research assistant at the Federal Reserve Board.

Operations Lead

Astrid works on maximising impact through efficient operations and project management. She has a background leading operations in early-stage startups in both the non-profit and corporate worlds. Previously, Astrid developed sustainable systems and infrastructure for a rapidly growing team at Good Law Project, a UK non-profit working to achieve change through the law.