We develop and apply forecasting methods to improve decision-making on high-stakes issues
First generation forecasting research—spearheaded by FRI Chief Scientist Philip Tetlock and coauthors—established a rigorous standard for prediction accuracy. FRI builds on this foundation by running large-scale forecasting studies on issues such as AI, biosecurity, and geopolitics. We then bring these results to policymakers, researchers, and the public to inform decisions on consequential topics.
Our work includes:
- Designing and running expert forecasting studies on complex, long-run topics, such as the future of AI
- Developing novel forecasting tools, such as methods for resolving unresolvable questions
- Using AI to create automated forecasting tools, and benchmarking the accuracy of AI forecasts
- Communicating forecasting insights to inform policy and public understanding