The FRI team

Ezra Karger

Director of Research

Ezra is an applied microeconomist in the research group at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, where he develops methods for forecasting unresolvable questions and constructing high-frequency indices that track policy-relevant economic indicators. He was previously an accurate research subject in IARPA’s ACE, HFC, and FOCUS forecasting tournaments. Ezra receives no compensation for his role at FRI.

Research authored
Working paper
Forecasting the Economic Effects of AI
Mar 31, 2026
Project
The Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP)
Ongoing
Working paper
Assessing Near-Term Accuracy in the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament
Sep 2, 2025
Working paper
Forecasting LLM-enabled Biorisk and the Efficacy of Safeguards
Jul 1, 2025