The FRI team

Philip Tetlock

President, Chief Scientist

Philip Tetlock is a PIK (Penn Integrates Knowledge) Professor, cross-appointed in the School of Arts and Sciences and Wharton at the University of Pennsylvania. He is the author of Expert Political Judgment (2005) and Superforecasting (2015)—and of 100+ peer-reviewed articles that have been cited 100+ times. Phil co-created the Good Judgment Project, the winning research team in IARPA’s series of geopolitical forecasting tournaments, and is a co-founder and advisor of Good Judgment Inc.

Research authored
Editorial
AI Needs Fewer Prophets and More Predictions
Dec 12, 2025
Project
The Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP)
Ongoing
Working paper
Assessing Near-Term Accuracy in the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament
Sep 2, 2025
Academic article
Belief updating in AI-risk debates: Exploring the limits of adversarial collaboration
Apr 3, 2025