There is widespread disagreement over the impact that AI will—or won't—have on the U.S. economy, but there has been little work attempting to systematically understand expert views on the economic impacts of AI. What do top economists and AI experts predict will be the economic consequences of AI—and why do they hold those beliefs?

In this working paper, we elicit forecasts on the economic effects of AI from academic economists, AI experts, highly accurate forecasters, and the general public. While all groups expect significant advancement in AI capabilities, they do not anticipate GDP, productivity, or labor force participation to deviate much from historical trends. However, conditional on a 'rapid' AI progress scenario, economists forecast substantial economic shifts, such as GDP growth rising to 3.5% and labor force participation falling from its current level of 62.6% to 55.0% by 2050. We also asked respondents to evaluate the effect that six policies would have on the economic consequences of AI.

We also built an interactive forecasting tool so that you can compare your own forecasts on AI’s economic impact to economists’ forecasts.

Read the full working paper here. Read the policy memo here.