Research
Explore our ongoing projects, working papers, and academic articles
Featured Working paper
How Close is Recursive Self-Improvement? A Review of the Evidence
We review the evidence, existing forecasts, and key disagreements, turn the disagreements into forecasting questions, and give initial forecasts from an ensemble of frontier LLMs.
Nov 10, 2026
Featured Editorial
Improving the Accuracy and Relevance of AI Forecasts We Publish
Sep 28, 2026
Featured Project
Automated AI Risk Outlook (AIRO)
A regularly updated dashboard that tracks the probability of catastrophic risk events, as forecast by an ensemble of frontier AI models.
Ongoing
Featured Working paper
Forecasting the Economic Effects of AI
We surveyed academic economists, AI experts, and superforecasters to produce the most comprehensive picture yet of how AI could reshape the U.S. economy. Respondents also evaluated the impact of six different policies intended to address the impact of rapid AI progress.
Mar 31, 2026
