Research
Explore our ongoing projects, working papers, and academic articles
Featured Editorial
How Accurate Have AI Progress Forecasts Been So Far?
We take an initial look at where median forecasts are (mostly) underestimating and (sometimes) overestimating AI progress, adoption, and impact.
Sep 22, 2026
Featured Project
Automated AI Risk Outlook (AIRO)
A regularly updated dashboard that tracks the probability of catastrophic risk events, as forecast by an ensemble of frontier AI models.
Ongoing
Featured Working paper
Forecasting the Economic Effects of AI
We surveyed academic economists, AI experts, and superforecasters to produce the most comprehensive picture yet of how AI could reshape the U.S. economy. Respondents also evaluated the impact of six different policies intended to address the impact of rapid AI progress.
Mar 31, 2026
Featured Project
The Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP)
LEAP is a three-year project tracking the views of leading computer scientists, AI industry professionals, policy researchers, and economists on the trajectory of artificial intelligence. Every month, LEAP participants provide thousands of forecasts on key AI progress indicators including benchmarks, labor market impacts, and scientific discovery.
Ongoing
