Publications — Forecasting Research Institute

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ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities
Karger, E., Bastani, H., Yueh-Han, C., Jacobs, Z., Halawi, D., Zhang, F., Tetlock, P.
(2024 working paper)
Long‐range subjective‐probability forecasts of slow‐motion variables in world politics: Exploring limits on expert judgment.
Tetlock, P., Karvetski, C., Satopää, V., Chen, K.
Futures and Foresight Science (2023)
Improving Judgments of Existential Risk: Better Forecasts, Questions, Explanations, Policies
Karger, E., Atanasov, P., Tetlock, P.
SSRN (2022)
Reciprocal Scoring: A Method for Forecasting Unanswerable Questions
Karger, E., Monrad, J., Mellers, B., Tetlock, P.
SSRN (2021)

Can Humanity Achieve a Century of Nuclear Peace?: Expert Forecasts of Nuclear Risk
Williams, B., Karger, E., Persbo A., Pirnavskaia, K., Kamel, K., Schmidt, V., Kuusela, O., Jacobs, Z., Tetlock, P.
(Oct 2024)
Conditional Trees: A Method for Generating Informative Questions about Complex Topics
McCaslin, T., Rosenberg, J., Karger, E., Morris, A., Hickman, M., Kuusela, O., Glover, S., Jacobs, Z., Tetlock, P
(Mar 2024)
Roots of Disagreement on AI Risk: Exploring the Potential and Pitfalls of Adversarial Collaboration
Rosenberg, J., Karger, E., Morris, A., Hickman, M., Hadshar, R., Gamin, K., Smith, T., Jacobs, Z., Tetlock, P.
(Mar 2024)
Forecasting Existential Risks: Evidence From a Long-Run Forecasting Tournament
Karger, E., Rosenberg, J., Jacobs, Z., Hickman, M., Hadshar, R., Gamin, K., Smith, T., Williams, B., McCaslin, T., Tetlock, P.
(Jul 2023)

Nuclear Expert Comment on Samotsvety Nuclear Risk Forecast
Scoblic, P., Rosenberg, J.
Effective Altruism Forum, March 2022
A Better Crystal Ball: The Right Way to Think About the Future
Scoblic, P., Tetlock, P.
Foreign Affairs, November/December 2020