FRI & affiliated publications
Academic papers
Forecasting LLM-enabled biorisk and the efficacy of safeguards
Williams, B., Righetti, L., Rosenberg, J., Ceppas de Castro. R., Kuusela, O., Britt, R., Soice, E., Morales, A., Sanders, J., Donoughe, S., Black, J., Karger, E., Tetlock, P.
Preprint (2025)Belief updating in AI-risk debates: Exploring the limits of adversarial collaboration
Rosenberg, J., Karger, E., Jacobs, Z., Hickman, M., Morris, A., Durland, H., Kuusela, O., Tetlock, P.
Risk Analysis (2025)Subjective-probability forecasts of existential risk: Initial results from a hybrid persuasion-forecasting tournament
Karger, E., Rosenberg, J., Jacobs, Z., Hickman, M., Tetlock, P.
International Journal of Forecasting (2025)ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities
Karger, E., Bastani, H., Yueh-Han, C., Jacobs, Z., Halawi, D., Zhang, F., Tetlock, P.
International Conference on Learning Representations (2025)“Project Improbable”: Improving Low-Probability Judgments
Atanasov, P., Consigny, C., Karger, E., Schoenegger, P., Budescu, D., Tetlock, P. (2024)Identifying good forecasters via adaptive cognitive tests
Merkle, E., Petrov, N., Zhu, S. M., Karger, E., Tetlock, P., Himmelstein, M. (2024)The Forecasting Proficiency Test: A General Use Assessment of Forecasting Ability
Himmelstein, M., Zhu, S. M., Petrov, S., Karger, E., Helmer, J., Livnat, S., Bennett, A., Hedley, P. Tetlock, P. (2024)The Psychometric Properties of Probability and Quantile Forecasts
Zhu, S. M., Budescu, D., Petrov, N., Karger, E., Himmelstein, M. (2024)Long‐range subjective‐probability forecasts of slow‐motion variables in world politics: Exploring limits on expert judgment.
Tetlock, P., Karvetski, C., Satopää, V., Chen, K.
Futures and Foresight Science (2023)Improving Judgments of Existential Risk: Better Forecasts, Questions, Explanations, Policies
Karger, E., Atanasov, P., Tetlock, P.
SSRN (2022)Reciprocal Scoring: A Method for Forecasting Unanswerable Questions
Karger, E., Monrad, J., Mellers, B., Tetlock, P.
SSRN (2021)
Reports & white papers
The Longitudinal Expert AI Panel: Understanding Expert Views on AI Capabilities, Adoption, and Impact
Murphy, C., Rosenberg, J., Canedy, J., Jacobs, Z., Flechner, N., Britt, R., Pan, A., Rogers-Smith, C., Mayland, D., Buffington, C., Kučinskas, S., Coston, A., Kerner, H., Pierson, E., Rabbany, R., Salganik, M., Seamans, R., Su, Y., Tramèr, F., Hashimoto, T., Narayanan, A., Tetlock, P., Karger, E.
(Nov 2025)Assessing Near-Term Accuracy in the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament
Kučinskas, S., Rosenberg, J., Ceppas de Castro, R., Jacobs, Z., Canedy, J., Tetlock, P., Karger, E.
(Sep 2025)Can Humanity Achieve a Century of Nuclear Peace?: Expert Forecasts of Nuclear Risk
Williams, B., Karger, E., Persbo A., Pirnavskaia, K., Kamel, K., Schmidt, V., Kuusela, O., Jacobs, Z., Tetlock, P.
(Oct 2024)Conditional Trees: A Method for Generating Informative Questions about Complex Topics
McCaslin, T., Rosenberg, J., Karger, E., Morris, A., Hickman, M., Kuusela, O., Glover, S., Jacobs, Z., Tetlock, P
(Aug 2024)Roots of Disagreement on AI Risk: Exploring the Potential and Pitfalls of Adversarial Collaboration
Rosenberg, J., Karger, E., Morris, A., Hickman, M., Hadshar, R., Gamin, K., Smith, T., Jacobs, Z., Tetlock, P.
(Mar 2024)Forecasting Existential Risks: Evidence From a Long-Run Forecasting Tournament
Karger, E., Rosenberg, J., Jacobs, Z., Hickman, M., Hadshar, R., Gamin, K., Smith, T., Williams, B., McCaslin, T., Tetlock, P.
(Jul 2023)
Editorials, blog posts & other writing
Nuclear Expert Comment on Samotsvety Nuclear Risk Forecast
Scoblic, P., Rosenberg, J.
Effective Altruism Forum, March 2022A Better Crystal Ball: The Right Way to Think About the Future
Scoblic, P., Tetlock, P.
Foreign Affairs, November/December 2020