While the world has avoided large-scale nuclear war, questions remain about the role of chance versus policy choices in preventing such events. This study systematically assesses expert beliefs about the probability of a nuclear catastrophe by 2045, the centenary of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Through a combination of expert interviews and surveys, 110 domain experts and 41 expert forecasters (“superforecasters”) predicted the likelihood of nuclear conflict, explained the mechanisms underlying their predictions, and forecasted the impact of specific tractable policies on the likelihood of nuclear catastrophe.

The findings of this survey highlight a few noteworthy patterns. NATO-Russia tensions emerged as the geopolitical hotspot most likely to trigger a nuclear exchange. Crisis communication networks and failsafe reviews emerged as the most popular policies for reducing the risk of nuclear catastrophe. Another key finding was that expert forecasters (superforecasters) estimated the overall risk of a nuclear catastrophe at 1%, while the aggregate view among nuclear experts was 5%. These trends offer valuable indications that warrant deeper discussion among experts and policymakers.

See the full report here.