The Open Nuclear Network and the Forecasting Research Institute are collaborating on a study to shed light on current views on the nuclear threat. The study is systematically collecting views on the probability that we make it to 100 years of nuclear weapons without a nuclear catastrophe, and what events or policies will alter this outlook. This interim report contains preliminary findings from the study which we are sharing with participants of the Second Session of the Preparatory Committee for the 2026 Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference.