Part-Time Content Editor

About FRI

Forecasting Research Institute (FRI) advances the science of forecasting to improve decision-making on high-stakes issues. Building on the work of Chief Scientist Philip Tetlock, FRI develops practical forecasting tools and applies them to society’s most critical decisions.

Our work includes:

• Creating panels of experts and skilled forecasters to make predictions about complex, long-term challenges facing society, including AI progress, bioweapons, and nuclear risk.

• Methodological innovations for predicting hard-to-forecast outcomes, such as applying adversarial collaboration to debates about the future of AI and improving forecasts of low-probability events.

• Using AI tools to enhance forecasting research. For example, we maintain a benchmark, ForecastBench, for evaluating the accuracy of AI-produced forecasts.

Our work has been featured in major news outlets, including The Economist, TIME, and Vox. Our team has presented our findings at side events at the United Nations, to Los Alamos National Laboratory, and to leading frontier AI companies, among other top decision-makers. 

The role

Over the next year, we expect Content Editors to mostly focus on:

• Producing summaries of forecasting rationales

• Writing forecasting questions. We are interviewing subject-matter experts in a range of fields, such as artificial intelligence and political science, and asking them for events or evidence that would strongly impact their probabilities of certain future events occurring. We are looking for Content Editors who can take the general suggestions from these interviews and develop them into detailed, resolvable forecasting questions.

• Writing policy reports and summaries of our team's research (as examples, see the XPT and AI Adversarial Collaboration Project)

• Conducting expert interviews

• Responding to forecasters’ questions or clarification requests

Qualifications

The ideal candidate would have the following characteristics, but please do not let this list prevent you from applying:

• Can write clearly and concisely

• Able to organize and consolidate a large amount of information, and present it in a clear and understandable manner

• Have high attention to detail and accuracy

• Familiarity with, and interest in, quantitative forecasting and writing forecasting questions

• Ability to work productively in a self-directed (remote) environment

• Receptive to feedback and willing to provide feedback to others

We are aware that women and those from minority groups are less likely to apply for roles if they don't meet every single criteria. We highly encourage you to apply, even if you don't feel completely qualified. Some of the best people we’ve worked with in our careers felt underqualified when they first applied, and we’re glad they did so anyway.