Senior Researcher
About FRI
Forecasting Research Institute (FRI) advances the science of forecasting to improve decision-making on high-stakes issues. Building on the work of Chief Scientist Philip Tetlock, FRI develops practical forecasting tools and applies them to society’s most critical decisions.
Our work includes:
Creating panels of experts and skilled forecasters to make predictions about complex, long-term challenges facing society, including AI progress, bioweapons, and nuclear risk.
Methodological innovations for predicting hard-to-forecast outcomes, such as applying adversarial collaboration to debates about the future of AI and improving forecasts of low-probability events.
Using AI tools to enhance forecasting research. For example, we maintain a benchmark, ForecastBench, for evaluating the accuracy of AI-produced forecasts.
Our work has been featured in major news outlets, including The Economist, TIME, and Vox. Our team has presented our findings at side events at the United Nations, to Los Alamos National Laboratory, and to leading frontier AI companies, among other top decision-makers.
The role
In this role you would manage one or more research projects. This may involve:
Coordinating a team of research analysts and research assistants, delegating tasks as appropriate, and ensuring that projects stay on track to meet deadlines
Contributing to the design of research projects that will help advance the science of forecasting and/or make forecasting more useful to policymakers
Planning data collection and ensuring smooth implementation of this process
Planning and overseeing data analysis, working closely with data analysts
Interpreting the results of research, and identifying key findings and implications for policy and philanthropic priorities
Coordinating the writing of project reports and (where appropriate) academic papers
Planning and executing evaluation of research projects
Qualifications
The ideal candidate would have the following characteristics:
Passionate about FRI’s mission of improving decision-making on high-stakes issues
Strong generalist research and writing skills
Excellent project manager who drives work ahead independently
Clear, explicit communicator, both in writing and verbally
Familiarity with, and interest in, quantitative forecasting
Ability to work productively in a self-directed (remote) environment
Experience managing people is preferred but not required
Experience managing the full research project cycle—from design to implementation to delivering results and evaluating—is preferred but not required
Familiarity with some of the data skills listed in our data analyst job description, though not required, is preferred
We highly encourage you to apply, even if you don't feel completely qualified. Some of the best people we’ve worked with in our careers felt underqualified when they first applied, and we’re glad they did so anyway.
The fine print
Role details
We prefer full-time but are open to part-time roles for the right candidate.
This role is entirely remote, however we ensure that team members have opportunities to connect and collaborate in-person with regular team retreats and virtual collaboration sessions. We are able to hire people in most countries, provided they have pre-existing work authorization for that country. Applicants can work whichever hours of the day work for them but must be consistently available between our core hours of 11am and 3pm ET.
Salary is commensurate with experience, $85,000-$130,000.
We provide 80% contribution towards fully funded health insurance for staff, 30 days per year of paid time off (including holidays), and up to 10 days of paid sick leave, among other benefits.
Application process
Applications are rolling; we are currently actively reviewing applicants.
The application process will vary by candidate but for successful candidates will typically involve:
An initial application, including a 1-hour work test
A paid 10-hour work test
Three to four virtual interviews with members of our team