Public debates about AI revolve around bold claims and counterclaims, but rarely culminate in precise, falsifiable forecasts of AI capabilities, adoption, and impact. The Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP) improves this signal-to-noise ratio by gathering such forecasts, monthly, from a carefully chosen panel of 339 experts spanning industry, academia, and policy.

The median expert foresees that by 2030, AI will be responsible for 7% of U.S. electricity usage, assist in 18% of work hours in the U.S., and provide daily companionship for 15% of adults—roughly 7x, 4x, and 2.5x current levels, respectively. The median expert also gives a 60% chance that AI systems solve or substantially assist in solving a Millennium Prize Problem by 2040, which would be a major achievement in mathematics.

There is substantial within-individual uncertainty and between-individual disagreement among experts, each accounting for roughly half of the total variation in expert forecasts across all questions. Nevertheless, the vast majority of LEAP forecasts fall far short of the warnings from AI lab leaders about imminent artificial superintelligence. We analyze 1.7 million words of participant rationales to provide a complementary qualitative overview of the key mechanisms underpinning fast and slow forecasts of AI progress.

LEAP began surveying in June 2025, first published results in November 2025, and will run for at least three years. For more about LEAP, and to view reports from each month of surveys and analysis of every question, visit the LEAP website.

Read the white paper here and a summary report here.