Results of Expert Forecasts on Nuclear Risk

Today, we’ve released “Can Humanity Achieve a Century of Nuclear Peace?,” a study which systematically assessed expert beliefs about the probability of a nuclear weapons catastrophe by 2045. The study saw 110 domain experts and 41 expert forecasters (“superforecasters”) predict the likelihood of nuclear conflict, explain the mechanisms underlying their predictions, and forecast the impact of specific tractable policies on the likelihood of nuclear catastrophe.

Read more here.