Results of the AI Conditional Trees Case Study

Today, we’ve released “Conditional Trees: A Method for Generating Informative Questions about Complex Topics,” in which we tested a new process for generating high-value forecasting questions: the “conditional trees” method. The project used structured interviews and conditional forecasts to find questions that would be more informative to participants’ forecast of extinction due to AI by 2100. 

Read more here.

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Results of Expert Forecasts on Nuclear Risk

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Results of an Adversarial Collaboration on AI Risk